Based on adoption and early outpatient use of the current
best treatment when it was known to be effective from multiple studies at p =
0.01 (ivermectin from Sep 30, 2020, and HCQ from May 19, 2020), and adjusting
for the estimated fraction of the world that adopted these treatments. The
total number of COVID-19 deaths is
.
Many other early treatments are effective, for example
vitamin D and bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555). Using
multiple treatments, especially with different mechanisms of action, is likely
to further reduce deaths.