Based on adoption and early outpatient use of the current best treatment when it was known to be effective from multiple studies at p = 0.01 (ivermectin from Oct 9, 2020, and HCQ from May 19, 2020), and adjusting for the estimated fraction of the world that adopted these treatments. The total number of COVID-19 deaths is .

There have been 56 controlled studies of ivermectin for COVID-19, authored by 469 scientists, with 18,447 patients. Meta analysis shows a 78% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.22 [0.12-0.39].

There have been 245 controlled studies of HCQ for COVID-19, authored by 3,919 scientists, with 368,128 patients. Meta analysis shows a 64% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.36 [0.25-0.50] (HCQ is not effective when used too late).

Many other early treatments are effective, for example vitamin D and bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555). Using multiple treatments, especially with different mechanisms of action, is likely to further reduce deaths.