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For those denying the effectiveness of early treatment, this is your legacy:
unnecessary deaths
Based on adoption and early outpatient use of the current best treatment when it was known to be effective from multiple studies at p = 0.01 (ivermectin from Sep 30, 2020, and HCQ from May 19, 2020), and adjusting for the estimated fraction of the world that adopted these treatments. The total number of COVID-19 deaths is
.
There have been 42 controlled studies of ivermectin for COVID-19, authored by 331 scientists, with 14,906 patients. Meta analysis shows a 83% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.17 [0.11-0.28].
There have been 211 controlled studies of HCQ for COVID-19, authored by 3,290 scientists, with 186,875 patients. Meta analysis shows a 65% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.35 [0.27-0.44] (HCQ is not effective when used too late).
Many other early treatments are effective, for example vitamin D and bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555). Using multiple treatments, especially with different mechanisms of action, is likely to further reduce deaths.
Espitia-Hernandezviral+, p<0.0001Carvallodeath, p=0.05Cadegianideath, p=0.50Ahmedsymptoms, p=0.09Chaccoursymptoms, p<0.05Afsarsymptoms, p=0.04Babalolaviral+, p=0.11Kirtideath, p=0.12Asgharviral+, p<0.001Raadhosp., p=0.24Mohanno recov., p=0.27Schwartzhosp., p=0.23Elalfyviral+, p<0.0001Ivermectin early treatmentShoumansymp. case, p<0.001Carvallocases, p<0.0001Beheracases, p<0.0001Elgazzarcases, p=0.03Carvallocases, p<0.0001Hellwigcases, p<0.02Bernigauddeath, p=0.08Alamcases, p<0.0001Vallejoscases, p<0.0001Chahlacases, p=0.003Beheracases, p<0.001Ivermectin prophylaxis% Lower Risk% Increased Risk
Gautretviral+, p=0.001Huangno recov., p=0.02Esperhosp., p=0.02Izouletdeath, p<0.001Ashrafdeath, p=0.15Huangviral- time, p<0.0001Guérindeath, p=1.00Chenviral- time, p=0.01Lagierdeath, p=0.05Derwanddeath, p=0.12Mitjàhosp., p=0.64Skipperhosp., p=0.19Hongviral+, p=0.001Bernabeu-Witteldeath, p=0.03Yudeath, p=0.02Lydeath, p=0.02Ipdeath, p=0.43Herasdeath, p=0.004Kirengarecov. time, p=0.20Sulaimandeath, p=0.01Guisado-Vascodeath, p=0.19Fonsecahosp., p=0.0008Cadegianideath, p=0.21Simovahosp., p=0.01Omranihosp., p=1.00Agustiprogression, p=0.21Suprogression, p=0.006Amaravadino recov., p=0.13HCQ early treatment studies% Lower Risk% Increased Risk