Based on adoption and early outpatient use of the current best treatment when it was known to be effective from multiple studies at p = 0.01 (ivermectin from Oct 9, 2020, and HCQ from May 19, 2020), and adjusting for the estimated fraction of the world that adopted these treatments. The total number of COVID-19 deaths is .

There have been 60 controlled studies of ivermectin for COVID-19, authored by 549 scientists, with 18,931 patients. Meta analysis shows a 76% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.24 [0.14-0.41].

There have been 257 controlled studies of HCQ for COVID-19, authored by 4,112 scientists, with 384,791 patients. Meta analysis shows a 66% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.34 [0.24-0.49] (HCQ is not effective when used too late).

Many other early treatments are effective, for example vitamin D and bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555). Using multiple treatments, especially with different mechanisms of action, is likely to further reduce deaths.