Based on adoption and early outpatient use of the current best treatment when it was known to be effective from multiple studies at p = 0.01 (ivermectin from Sep 24, 2020, and HCQ from May 19, 2020), and adjusting for the estimated fraction of the world that adopted these treatments. The total number of COVID-19 deaths is .

There have been 52 controlled studies of ivermectin for COVID-19, authored by 426 scientists, with 17,562 patients. Meta analysis shows a 81% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.19 [0.09-0.38].

There have been 233 controlled studies of HCQ for COVID-19, authored by 3,721 scientists, with 359,815 patients. Meta analysis shows a 65% improvement for early treatment, relative risk 0.35 [0.25-0.50] (HCQ is not effective when used too late).

Many other early treatments are effective, for example vitamin D and bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555). Using multiple treatments, especially with different mechanisms of action, is likely to further reduce deaths.